The Minnesota Vikings are in a transition period at quarterback, as Kirk Cousins moved onto the Atlanta Falcons this offseason. At the same time, the Vikings brought in a now-injured J.J. McCarthy and Sam Darnold to replace him. The change at quarterback is a legitimate concern for the offense and begs the question, should you draft Justin Jefferson in your 2024 fantasy football redraft league?
Should You Draft Justin Jefferson?
- Yahoo ADP: WR3, Overall 6
- Our Rank: Half point PPR – WR4, Overall 5
There is no doubt that Jefferson is one of, if not the best, wide receivers in the league. The big question is how will the downgrade at quarterback to Darnold impact his fantasy numbers?
Jefferson caught 30 passes for 476 yards and two touchdowns in the final 4 games of the year with quarterback Nick Mullens leading the way. That is a strong stat line with a below-average quarterback, but also a small sample size where Mullens’ propensity to play riskier with deep shots into coverage ended up being good for Jefferson’s numbers. Plus, the Vikings were out of contention and had nothing to lose.
The good news is that head coach Kevin O’Connell loves throwing the ball, and with Jefferson as his best offensive player, that isn’t going to change, no matter who is behind center.
Last season, Minnesota had the fourth-highest pass rate in the league. Add in an injured T.J. Hockenson and the possibility of Jordan Addison missing time to a suspension, there will be plenty of games where Jefferson will see 12+ targets this year.
Despite missing seven games last season, Jefferson still caught 68 passes for 1,074 yards and five touchdowns. If you extrapolate those numbers to 17 games, he could have caught 115 receptions from 170 targets for 1,825 yards and 8.5 touchdowns.
Sam Darnold hasn’t looked awful of late, and there is a real shot at a redemption arc playing out for him in this offense. But even if you can’t make yourself take Darnold seriously, Jefferson is QB-proof in this offense.
The Bottom Line
- Draft Jefferson with confidence in the first round.
- I rank him 5th overall behind Christian McCaffrey, CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, and JaMarr Chase.
I feel quite comfortable drafting Jefferson early in the first round of fantasy drafts despite the downgrade at quarterback. We know for sure he will be the undisputed target hog in a pass-first offense and as long as he’s getting targets, he is special enough to turn those targets, good and bad, into fantasy points.
The loss of Cousins does make him slightly riskier, especially when comparing him to top receivers like CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, and JaMarr Chase. I have those three ahead of him in the rankings. Of course, Lamb and Chase are currently holding out, which likely won’t leak into the regular season, but if it does, Jefferson, who has signed an extension recently, wouldn’t have similar questions.
