Tuesday, November 12, 2024
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Best NBA Player Props Today – Top NBA Prop Picks (Updated Daily)

Finding the best NBA player props today can be a nightmare. Let me guess: you’ve run into spotty info, projection overload, or “trust me bro” tips from social media hacks.

At Best Props Today, we’re calling BS on that. We do the heavy lifting to serve up top NBA props that actually make sense. Clear, accurate, daily updates – no fluff, no filler.

Just the best NBA props today – and straightforward ways to boost your bankroll. Because that’s what you’re here for, right?

Best NBA Player Props Today: Tuesday, Nov. 12

Here are our favorite NBA player prop bets tonight:

Warriors PG Stephen Curry Over 22.5 Points

This is a special at Betr Picks, with the line discounted from 25.5 points to 20.5.

You can sign up for Betr Picks below to take advantage of this promo, as they run NBA discounts like this for ALL USERS every day!

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Wolves PF Naz Reid Over 1.5 Made Threes (-120)

NAZ REID. Let’s get crazy here:

  • I’m going to put one unit on Reid to go over 1.5 made threes.
  • Then I’ll put an extra 0.25 unit on Reid to go over 2.5 made threes (+250 odds)

Reid has gone over 1.5 made threes in 7 of 10 games, which includes 4 of his last 5 – and three makes from downtown last week against the same Portland team he’ll face tonight.

The Blazers allow the 5th highest opponent three-point shooting %, and Naz has buried at least two three-pointers in four of his last five against them.

Where to place: Naz Reid over 1.5 3PM | -120 at NoVig

Ladder: Naz Reid over 2.5 3PM (0.25 unit) | +250 at Fliff

Wolves PF Julius Randle Under 7.5 Rebounds (-125)

Randle has gone under this number in 6 of his last 7 games — and 7 of 10 overall this season. That includes only 6 rebounds last week against the same Portland team he’ll see tonight.

He has always had healthy rebound numbers, but he’s seeing less minutes without Tom Thibodeau running him into the ground, and playing alongside Rudy Gobert hurts his rates.

Where to place: Julius Randle Under 7.5 Rebounds | -125 at Rebet

Raptors C Jakob Poeltl: Double-Double (-110)

Poeltl is averaging 14.0 points and 11.4 rebounds per game this season.

He has posted a double-double in 5 of his last 8 games while enjoying higher rates without Scottie Barnes.

Poeltl had a double-double in both games vs. Milwaukee last season – even though Barnes and Pascal Siakam were alongside him. Now he has a clear path to cruise above this line once again.

Where to place: Jakob Poeltl double-double | -110 at Fliff

Results

YTD: 24-20 | +$138.00

*Assumes risking $100 for every plus-money prop, and to win $100 on all others.

*Promos and discounts do not go on the official record. 

Full Tracking Here

Get NBA Props Like Clockwork!

If you want to save time, grab the best NBA props daily, and smash every prop promo to build your bankroll, sign up for the Best Props Newsletter.

Where Can You Place NBA Player Props in the US?

Here are our top options for placing NBA player picks in the US, depending if sports betting is legal or not in your location.

No Sports Betting? Check Out Fantasy Player Prop Sites

Social Sportsbook: Legal in 42 of 50 States

Our favorite option in this category is Fliff Sportsbook, an online sportsbook with a sweepstakes model legal in 42 states.

Sports Betting Allowed In Your Location?

Sports betting legal in your state? Lucky you. Hit up the usual suspects:

  • FanDuel Sportsbook
  • DraftKings Sportsbook
  • BetMGM
  • Bet365 (sneaky good for juicy NBA prop betting lines)

Ultimate NBA Prop Betting Guide & Tools

Alright, let’s break down how to dominate the NBA player props game:

Grasping the Basics

NBA player props are all about individual performance. Forget team wins, moneyline, spreads, game props, and other forms of prop betting.

We are focusing on the type of prop bet that measures a single player’s points, rebounds, assists, and all that good stuff. It’s like fantasy basketball on steroids.

Popular prop bets include:

  • LeBron James: Over/under 24.5 points
  • Nikola Jokic: Over/under 12.5 rebounds
  • Luka Doncic: Over/under 9.5 assists

An individual prop bet like this can focus on the NBA’s biggest stars (like above), but there will even be lines for bench players.

Prop betting wagers can extend to stats like 3-pointers made, steals, and even blocks props. There are other detailed player props like first basket props or first team basket.

Other team prop betting options focus on how many points or 3-pointers and entire team will score.

3 NBA Prop Factors to Watch

  1. Player Performance Metrics: Recent form, consistency, and advanced stats like PER. Don’t just look at the box score – dig deeper. We’ll outline what and where to find these stats in our prop betting guide below.
  2. Matchups: How does a player stack up against their opponent? Some guys feast against certain teams and get shut down by others.
  3. Injury Reports: A star player out? That could mean more opportunities for others. Stay on top of who’s in and out for player prop betting purposes.

We’ll run through these types of prop betting stats and factors in the research section below.

Smart Prop Picking Strategies

  1. Bankroll Management: Don’t bet the farm on one prop. Stick to 1-5% of your bankroll per bet. It’s a marathon, not a sprint.
  2. Shop for the Best Lines: Different books (or fantasy apps), different odds. Do your homework and find the best value across prop betting markets.
  3. Understand the Odds: Whether it’s fractional, decimal, or moneyline, know what you’re looking at on the sportsbook menu. Better odds = better payouts.
  4. Risk Assessment: Don’t just chase the big paydays. Evaluate the risk vs. reward for each bet.

6 Essential Tools for NBA Prop Betting Research

If you’re serious about crushing NBA prop betting wagers, you need the right tools. Here are some of the top FREE resources we use to find the best NBA prop bets:

NBA.com Advanced Stats

Link: https://www.nba.com/stats/leaders

This is the big daddy of NBA stats. We’re talking:

  • Potential assists
  • Rebound chances
  • Team strengths and weaknesses
  • Pull-up vs. catch-and-shoot 3’s

The first two in that category are the most helpful. You can toggle to advanced stats to find these.

There’s a learning curve at first, but you’ll get familiar with where the stats are and how to read them in no time.

Breaking NBA Prop News: Underdog Fantasy

Link: https://x.com/Underdog__NBA

Follow Underdog Fantasy NBA on Twitter and turn those notifications ON.

When a player gets ruled out, value opens up elsewhere. Stay ahead of the curve.

RotoGrinders CourtIQ

Link: https://rotogrinders.com/courtiq

Getting your news from Underdog Fantasy and then using CourtIQ to determine what that news means is a good practice.

This tool is a game-changer when players get ruled in or out. Want to know how many points, rebounds, or assists a player averages with others on or off the court? Boom. This is your ticket to beating the books.

Historical Stats & More: StatMuse

Link: https://statmuse.com

Do you want to know how Karl-Anthony Towns has fared against Joel Embiid in their meetings over the past five years? Just search for it on Statmuse.

You can also quickly find stats like “LeBron James stats this season with Anthony Davis” and compare that to “LeBron James stats this season without Anthony Davis.”

You can also search “Anthony Edwards vs. Suns game log,” it will pull up all of his career games with full stat info in a neat list.

NBA player props tools and how to look up player game logs on Statmuse.

Overall, this is a go-to source for historical matchup data and more.

Find Plus Matchups: TeamRankings

Link: https://teamrankings.com/nba/stats

The favorites here are points in the paint allowed, team rebound rate, and possessions per game.

NBA player props research while looking at rebound rate.
The Wizards, Hornets, and Thunder had the lowest rebound rates in 2023-24.

So looking at the 2023-24 data above, we would target rebounds over for well-aligned players against these teams.

This helps when looking at big man props and rebound totals or spotting high-scoring game potential and an appealing defensive matchup.

Analyze Defense vs. Position: HoopsStats

Link: http://www.hoopsstats.com/

Who’s soft against power forwards? Which team bleeds points to shooting guards? This site breaks it down by position.

Remember, NBA positions are fluid, so use this as a guide, not gospel.

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