Let’s cut to the chase: You’re here for the best NFL prop bets today (or this week), and we’re here to deliver. After all, we didn’t name this site BEST PROPS TODAY for nothing.
We get it. You’re drowning in a sea of stats and hot takes. Well, consider us your life raft. We’re all about slicing through the noise and serving the prime NFL player prop cuts.
Check back throughout the week (or subscribe to our newsletter), as we will add NFL prop bets to this article.
Best NFL Prop Bets Today: Week 5
Here we go with our favorite NFL player props for each day of Week 4. We will list our top NFL player props here with the analysis lower in the article or linked to the appropriate page.
Anytime TD Props
You can read the full analysis for these props on the Anytime TD Props hub page.
- Kenneth Walker III Rush TD: -115 at Fliff
- Derrick Henry Rush TD: -150 at Fliff
- Josh Jacobs Rush TD: +100 at Fliff
- Jordan Mason Rush TD & Derrick Henry Rush TD: +161 at Fliff
- Chuba Hubbard Anytime TD: +145 at DK
First TD Props
Get the full analysis and results on the First TD Props page.
- Drake London First TD: +1000 (TNF) ✅
- Ja’Marr Chase First TD: +1000
- James Conner First TD: +800
- Diontae Johnson First TD: +1100
- Stefon Diggs First TD: +1100
- Jakobi Meyers First TD: +1300
Yardage Props
- Chuba Hubbard Over 62.5 Rush Yards (-110): Hubbard has racked up 114 and 104 rushing yards in consecutive games, with 18+ carries in each. He now takes on a Bears defense that has allowed the starting RB to rush for 82+ yards in three of their last four games.
- Brian Thomas Jr. Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (-120): The rookie has seen 9+ targets in two straight, and he’s averaging a nice 69 yards per game while looking forward to a good matchup against the Colts. His line is 55.5 on DK, but we can still grab 50.5 at BetMGM.
- Diontae Johnson over 60.5 receiving yards. This line feels way too low especially considering that Johnson has been an absolute target hog while posting 83+ yards in both games with Andy Dalton under center. We should see more of the same against Chicago, and this is a volume-driven play.
Check Back For More NFL Player Props
We’re constantly adding more NFL player props to this Best NFL Prop Bets Today hub page. Check back or subscribe to our newsletter to stay in the loop.
NFL Player Props Guide: 2024
Looking to get up to speed on NFL player props. Here’s what you need to know:
What Are NFL Player Props?
NFL player props focus on individual player performance rather than overall game outcomes. Think of it as making predictions on a player’s stat line.
For example, you might bet on Patrick Mahomes throwing for over 300 yards, or Derrick Henry to score a rushing touchdown.
Some popular NFL player props include:
- Quarterback passing yards
- Running back rushing yards
- Wide receiver/tight end receptions Or receiving yards
- Anytime TD Scorer
- First TD Scorer (who will score first TD of the game)
Other NFL prop bets are:
- Over/Under Player Rushing Attempts
- Over/Under Interceptions Thrown
- Over/Under Kicker Extra Points (Or Field Goals) Made
Do NFL Props Get Voided if a Player Gets Injured?
The answer is no. If a player takes the field at any point in the game and then gets hurt, the prop stands.
This can be brutal sometimes, especially if you take the “over” on a player’s yards and their day is cut short. Imagine betting on Saquon Barkley’s rushing yards, and he tweaks his ankle on the first play. Tough break, but that’s the game.
However, if the player doesn’t even step on the field, most sportsbooks will void the bet. This is if the player is ruled out prior to the game or doesn’t see any snaps for some reason. Of course, you need to check the fine print of the place you are playing at for full details.
Are NFL Player Props Good Wagers?
It depends. There are so many NFL player prop categories that you can really lock into a market and use specific knowledge to outsmart the books. That’s what we try to do here at Best Props Today.
Although the operators are getting sharper, it’s difficult for some of them to set accurate prop lines for hundreds of players every single week or gameday. From here, you can pick off the softer lines and make a decent return in the process.
Remember, though, no pick is a sure thing. Even the best NFL prop predictors have their cold streaks. Variance can take hold at any time, too.
Do NFL Prop Bets Go into Overtime?
Most player props include overtime stats, unless the rules of the operator (or statement on the betslip) specifically say otherwise.
Because of this, yards and touchdowns gained in overtime usually count.
For example, say you take Josh Allen to throw for over 300 yards. He’s sitting at 290 at the end of regulation, and the game goes to overtime. Suddenly, that 15-yard pass in OT makes you a winner.
However, don’t count on overtime to save your bet. It’s like playing with house money – a nice bonus if it happens, but not something to rely on.
How to Find Value in NFL Player Props?
Finding value in NFL props can be considered an art and a science. Here are some items to keep in mind:
1. Study Recent Performance: Look at how the player has performed in the last few games. What are the subtleties within that? For example, has Lamar Jackson been throwing more lately, with his team coming from behind? Is that likely to happen again?
2. Analyze Matchups: This is huge. Understanding matchup potential and how that ties into gamescript can help. This is where the “art” comes in, and we try to explain this with most props we write up at Best Props Today.
3. Team News and Injuries: Is the starting left tackle out? That could spell trouble for the quarterback’s passing yards prop. Is the WR1 injured, meaning more targets for the WR2? Stay on top of this stuff.
5. Shop for the Best Odds: We stress this in every write-up. Different sportsbooks often have different lines for the same prop. Shopping around can literally be the difference between a win and a loss. It can also represent significant gains over time.
6. Consider Game Script: We touched on this before, but it’s worth mentioning separately. Think about how the game might play out. If a team is likely to be playing from behind, their quarterback’s passing yards prop might be juicy.
7. Watch for Changing Roles: Has a running back been getting more catches lately? Is a wide receiver being used differently with a new offensive coordinator? Spot these trends before the oddsmakers adjust.
Check Back for the Best NFL Prop Bets Today
Remember, the key to successful prop betting is thorough research and disciplined bankroll management. Don’t go chasing losses, and never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Stay tuned for the best NFL player props today and throughout the season. We’re here to help you navigate this exciting world of player props, bringing you top-value NFL props week after week.
