Welcome to the Week 5 usage recap. We’ll take a look at some odd or interesting usage rates we saw and what we might learn from those. Usually these numbers help us find waiver wire targets and maybe more.
Thursday night brought us a big outpouring of offense, as Kirk Cousins threw for over 500 yards and completed four touchdown passes, while Baker Mayfield threw for three touchdowns himself. That game foretold a nice week from passing games, as Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson combined for nine touchdowns and over 700 yards passing.
We even saw Trevor Lawrence and Caleb Williams put up strong numbers after slow starts to the season. Even Bo Nix showed he can be a fantasy quarterback, as he threw two touchdowns and rushed for his fifth touchdown on the ground. Things change in this league quickly! Let’s take a look at some other changes this week below.
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Joe Flacco has big game, will he continue to start?
This question has been answered by the Colts head coach Steve Steichen with a no, but everyone and their dog knows what the real answer should be if they want to win games now. Flacco is much more accurate than Anthony Richardson and gives the offense a better chance of consistently moving the ball. Sure, they lost in Jacksonville, but not because of Flacco, who threw for 359 yards and three touchdowns. The defense let them down.
The argument for keeping Richardson at starter is strong too, as the team isn’t on track to go far in the playoffs even if they were able to sneak in with Flacco at the helm. Richardson is the future at the position and Flacco is just too old to be that. It makes sense for the franchise to want to keep giving Richardson hands on training, but at some point the team might grow tired of his inconsistencies, especially if they ask him not to run as much to save his body. Richardson without running is a very bad quarterback right now. If he returns, you have to downgrade Josh Downs and Michael Pittman, two strong fantasy options under Flacco.
Tank Bigsby takeover?
The numbers look great for Bigsby against the Colts in Week 5. He rushed 13 times for 101 yards and two touchdowns, while catching one pass for 28 more yards. Travis Etienne Jr. ended the day with six carries for 17 yards, while catching 6-of-7 targets for 43 more yards.
There’s no doubt that Bigsby is running better between the tackles and has continued to earn touches, but it’s also clear that Etienne wasn’t healthy in this game and has dealt with in-game injuries the last couple weeks despite him being cleared to play. He barely played in the fourth quarter in Week 5 due to a shoulder injury, and D’Ernest Johnson took over some of the passing down work.
#Jaguars RB Tank Bigsby ranks No. 1 in the NFL in Rushing Yards Over Expectation per attempt at +4.2.
No. 2 is Derrick Henry at …. +2.5.
— John Shipley (@_John_Shipley) October 7, 2024
If Etienne is healthy, he will continue to see work and will be the receiving back. But, Bigsby is the no-doubt goal-line back and could completely take over that early down role with the way he has been playing. Bigsby is a must pick-up if available, but Etienne isn’t going to disappear.
Chase Brown time?
Brown has now had back-to-back fantasy playable games, accumulating 27 carries for 126 yards and two touchdowns, while catching 5-of-6 targets for 20 yards and another touchdown. The nominal starter, Zack Moss, has 24 carries for 75 yards and no touchdowns, adding 7-of-8 receptions for 55 yards and a touchdown.
Moss injured his ankle late in their loss to the Ravens in Week 5, but initial reports are that it isn’t a significant injury. But, no matter how you look at it, the way Brown has played and Moss’ injury should open up more work for the second-year player.
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Tyrone Tracy over Devin Singletary or nah?
With Singletary out due to a groin injury, Tracy took over as the lead back against the Seahawks. And Tracy came on strong, rushing 18 times for 127 yards and looking good in doing so:
You can watch all 129 of Tyrone Tracy’s Week 5 rushing yards here.
– Vision/Spatial Awareness
– Tempo/Pacing
– Contact Balance (not always perfect, but really impressive for an inexperienced RB. Expect it to only get better as he’s more comfortable)
– Lateral quickness ⚡️ pic.twitter.com/RE0u97XEAH— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) October 7, 2024
There’s no doubt Tracy turned some heads this week and with Singletary out and the Giants holding onto a lead, his usage likely was as high as he could see. The question is, how much will he cut into Singletary’s work when he returns? Singletary is likely to return next week, as he was reportedly close to playing in Week 5.
Tracy is the more explosive back, and I expect this game helps get him more work, but I also don’t see Singletary losing his job completely to a rookie after one game. Tracy is a great pickup for your bench, but you can’t expect to be able to start hi when Singletary is healthy.
The best offensive player in Pittsburgh gets a demotion
We knew that Arthur Smith’s offense would be tough on receivers, but with the Steelers employing only one good receiver, at least we knew he would get the bulk of work. And yes, George Pickens has seen a large percentage of the team’s routes, targets and air yards. Unfortunately that usage took a dip this week against the Cowboys, as the team put Pickens on reduced snaps.
#Steelers HC Mike Tomlin on George Pickens playing just 59% of offensive snaps:
“We just wanted to kind of minimize his reps in an effort to get more productivity… He wasn’t less of a focal point, in terms of our intentions of what we were wanting to do offensively, but we did… pic.twitter.com/31SSwFNzhV
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) October 7, 2024
Giving your best players reduced snaps in a game they trailed throughout and lost? Looking in from the outside, that’s just dumb. If I had to guess, and you usually do with Tomlin, I’d say he is sending Pickens a message for some sloppy play, which included a costly fumble last week in their loss to the Colts and some routes where he appeared to be going through the motions. The trouble is, the Steelers have the worst wide receiver room in the league after their No. 1 receiver.
This move could also be pushed by Arthur Smith, who likely wants tight ends to help block for his run-first offense. Bringing in extra tight ends and taking Pickens off the field does give them better blocking, but also makes things so much easier for defenses. They get to focus on the run and don’t have to worry much about a deep pass completion.
We don’t know what Pickens is doing behind the scenes, and with Davante Adams trying to force a trade and Romeo Doubs skipping practices, we know disgruntled wide receivers can push their way off a team, so there could be more to all of this. This is a situation to monitor.
Has Jalen Tolbert arrived?
With Brandin Cooks sent to I.R., Jalen Tolbert led the team in targets and snap percentage, just ahead of CeeDee Lamb. Tolbert also led the team in receptions and receiving yards, as he caught 7-of-10 targets for 87 yards and a touchdown.
Tolbert has shown well in separation analytics so far this season, but the targets weren’t quite there for fantasy consistency. But with Cooks out and a big game, I expect those targets to remain strong and there is a good chance he takes over as the WR2 even with Cooks back. With Lamb and Jake Ferguson earning targets, we can’t expect double-digit targets each week, but 6-10 is enough to keep him as a fantasy asset moving forward.
Rico Dowdle continues to take over the backfield
Rico Dowdle and Ezekiel Elliott have been sharing work this season, but Dowdle continues to show more burst and has earned more touches. That culminated this week in a game Dowdle ran the ball 20 times for 87 yards and caught two passes for 27 yards and a touchdown. Elliott ended up with six carries for 17 yards.
I’d expect Elliott won’t be with the team much longer if Dalvin Cook is called up from the practice squad. But no matter what, Dowdle is the guy now and 20 carries in a close game makes him a good fantasy player moving forward, as nobody else on the team deserves that kind of work.
James Conner gets a huge workload
The Cardinals decided to go all in with Conner this week, as he played 79% of the snaps and saw 21 touches to just one by Emari Demercado, while Trey Benson was demoted to zero snaps. Conner has had a similar workload before, but he’s one of the few back in the league who has no competition whatsoever. He didn’t score this week against a good 49ers defense, but was still able to total 100 yards due to his stranglehold on the job.
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