Week 4 is in the books and once again we are inundated with a pile of new data to comb over as we recalibrate our fantasy and betting regime moving forward.
This week we saw backfield committees going all wonky, so we’ll need to delve into those, plus a potential season-ending injury to the Chiefs best receiver and a whole lot more as we dig into the data.
Should you chase Chase Brown on waivers?
The Bengals put up a bunch of points on the Panthers weak defense on Sunday, but the best fantasy numbers came from their backup running back Chase Brown.
- Brown ran the ball 15 times for 80 yards and two touchdowns, while catching 3-of-3 targets for 12 more yards.
- Zach Moss, the lead back, also rushed 15 times, but for 51 yards and no touchdowns, but did catch 4-of-4 targets for 27 yards and a touchdown.
Both backs were good fantasy plays, but what can we expect moving forward?
The immediate bad news for Brown is that he wasn’t the receiving back, Moss was, per PFF. What helped Brown was an increase in rushing attempts and attempts near the goal line, as both his touchdowns were goal line looks.
Moss was still in on two of the five goal line snaps and caught a touchdown on one of those, so that situation could be fluid, while Moss as the hurry-up/third-down/pass-blocking back keeps him as the back you want to start of the two still.
If Brown is available, he’s worth a pickup, but we’ll need to see his role continue to expand even more before overtakes Moss as the top fantasy back in Cincinnati.
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Are the Carolina Panthers fantasy players sustainable?
The Bengals won in the end, but not before the Panthers put up a fight, which included two touchdown passes from Andy Dalton to Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette, and a rushing touchdown from Chuba Hubbard. In all, there were four players on the Panthers who were worth starting in most fantasy leagues.
The Carolina Panthers again provided Andy Dalton with the lowest pressure rate in the NFL in Week 4.
Dalton has been the least-pressured QB in back-to-back weeks, and the Panthers have the lowest pressured rate in the NFL on the season.
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 30, 2024
Of course we can’t expect four fantasy starters each week, but as Mr. Gibbs shows us above, that Panthers offensive line is doing their job well. We know Dalton isn’t exactly Lamar Jackson in the pocket, so he needs his pockets to be clean and when they are, he’s orchestrated an above average offense over the last two weeks.
That offense has incorporated rookie Xavier Legette well, making him a strong waiver wire pickup while Adan Thielen is out and possibly beyond. While Diontae Johnson continues to put up good numbers as the No. 1 receiver.
The question at tailback will be how quickly rookie Jonathan Brooks can overtake Hubbard while Hubbard is playing like one of the best backs in the league at the moment.
Brooks could be back as soon as next week, but as long as Hubbard is playing well, they’ll likely take his transition to starter slowly.
Pick up Dontayvion Wicks with Christian Watson possibly going on I.R.
The Packers have four good wide receivers, which has made it tough for all of them to see snaps and targets. But, that should change at least for a few weeks, as Christian Watson has a high ankle sprain that could land him on I.R., per Ian Rapoport.
Watson had been fighting for playing time with Dontayvion Wicks, which has hurt Wicks, as Watson has been ahead of him in snaps for the first three weeks. That changed this week, as Watson left the game just nine snaps in, which ended up giving Wicks his highest snap total of the year and in-turn, his best game of the year.
He ended the day catching 5-of-13 targets for 78 yards and two touchdowns. It wasn’t all pretty, as you can see by his catch rate, but he easily led the team in targets as Jordan Love tried to lead them out of a big deficit.
Did Arthur Smith sneak back to Atlanta?
If you drafted Bijan Robinson in the first round, you aren’t exactly happy with how much and how well his backup played this week. Tyler Allgeier took away a lot of goal line work last season and now in Week 4, he just outplayed Robinson as a rusher and won more touches as the game went on.
Allgeier looked good as he put together eight carries for 60 yards, while Robinson had seven carries for 28 yards. Robinson led as a receiver, catching all four of his targets for 46 yards, while Allgeier caught his two targets for 20 yards.
On the season, Robinson has better per touch numbers and the analytics have him ahead of Robinson, and his head coach believes “stats are for losers“.
So, like with Arthur Smith last year, I expect Allgeier to continue seeing elevated work as long as he’s playing well. That could mean some fantasy flex plays moving forward, but he’s still not a start in most leagues as long as Robinson is the lead back.
But, we probably need to lower expectations for Robinson a little, although he remains a must start for now.
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Et tu Braelon Allen?
Yet another first round running back is losing work to his backup. This time it’s Breece Hall, who is losing work to rookie Braelon Allen. The Jets-Broncos game was ugly from multiple angles, but in the end, Allen won touches and has shown throughout the season why he deserves work despite Hall’s ability.
- Against the Broncos, Hall had 10 carries for four yards and caught 2-of-4 targets for 14 yards.
- Allen was able to put up 34 yards on 8 carries and caught his one target for 12 yards.
Neither even came close to fantasy relevancy this week, but the touch split was eye opening in a one-point loss.
Hall was the receiving back, but split early down and short-yardage work fairly evenly with Allen, per PFF. The team will continue to go with Hall as their main back, and unless there’s an injury, he should retain that role.
But, there will be times where Allen takes away touches and touchdowns, as he’s just been too good to keep off the field.
Have any receivers emerged from the Rams carnage?
With Cooper Kupp likely out a couple more weeks and Puka Nacua out another month-ish, it sure would be nice to find a usable fantasy receiver for Matthew Stafford to give fantasy points. I was all in on Demarcus Robinson, who showed well at the end of last season, but so far it looks like rookie Jordan Whittington and Tutu Atwell have emerged enough to give them a fantasy shot over the next couple weeks.
Whittington led the team in snaps, routes run, targets and receptions, while Atwell led the team in receiving yards against a good Bears pass defense. Atwell also had a strong Week 3 game, and has now topped 80 yards in back-to-back games.
Jordan Whittington: full-time role in Week 4 📈
97% route participation
28% target share
26% air yards shareWon’t be long-lived when Kupp and Nacua return, but could be something in Week 5 against the Packers.
God knows we are all hurting.
— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) September 29, 2024
If you’re looking for PPR production, Whittington is probably the safest guy on the team, while Atwell has the upside for big weeks due to his deeper targets.
Neither are automatic starts, but they do have a strong set up with Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford leading the way. I’d be willing to spot start either against the Packers in Week 5.
The Kansas City Chiefs are 4-0, but hooo boy!
We saw Kansas City win back-to-back Super Bowls the last two seasons, but they continued to be lacking in impact wide receivers since they let Tyreek Hill go. But, finally, this was the year! They added Marquise Brown in free agency, sophomore WR Rashee Rice’s trajectory was going up, and they drafted rookie speedster Xavier Worthy.
But as with everything, things fell apart. Brown didn’t even make it to the regular season and is out for the duration with an injury and yesterday, Rice tore his ACL, and is also done for the year. That leaves a rookie speedster and a whole lot of question marks at receiver.
We know Travis Kelce is going to need to be called on to be the main target once again, but is there any fantasy hope after Kelce and Worthy on this team?
After Rice went down early in the game, the top three receivers were Worthy, Justin Watson, and JuJu Smith-Shuster. Per PFF, nobody took over as the primary slot receiver, which had mostly been Rice’s job. Sky Moore and Mercole Hardman also saw some work, but Hardman had no targets, while Moore had two, with one being a crucial drop.
Kelce is likely back up into elite usage with this injury, while Worthy will see more snaps and routes, making him safer as a fantasy start. But, after that, I expect the targets to be spread pretty evenly between this motley crew, making their fantasy value low.
Carson Steele, we hardly knew thee
Staying with the MASH unit known as the Chiefs offense let’s take a look at their backfield. No, no, avert your eyes! So, Carson Steele had won the starting job after Isaiah Pacheco’s injury, but with Kareem Hunt elevated from the practice squad and Samaje Perine in the mix, his leash was quite short. And after a fumble, his second of the season on just 28 carries, Hunt took over as the lead.
After his fumble Steele didn’t completely go away, but there was no doubt that Hunt was the lead, as he rushed 14 times for 69 yards and caught two passes for 16 yards, while Steele ended the day with two rushing attempts for six yards and one reception for no yards. Perine ended up getting the lone rushing touchdown from two-yards out, but also had just five carries and no targets.
The question is whether Hunt did enough to win the starting job or will we see Steele get mixed back in more with a shot to redeem his fumbling ways? I think Reid will go the safer route with Hunt, but Perine looks like he’ll continue to be mixed in, as he saw around the same number of snaps as Hunt and ran more routes, per PFF.
Hunt is a waiver wire pickup if available, but his usage isn’t set in stone.
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