Welcome to Week 10 of the NFL season! But, before we get too far ahead of ourselves, let’s take a look back at Week 9 and try to decipher some of the news and noise.
It was another ugly weekend for a few head coaches, but Dennis Allen and Matt Eberflus looked the worst (if you just forget Mike McCarthy and Antonio Pierce are coaching somewhere).
Unfortunately for Allen, it was his time to be ejected from his job after many players spoke or tweeted something negative about the coaching staff following the game. It’s ugly in New Orleans even with Allen gone, but maybe this move will clear the air for a couple days.
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Dak Prescott injured his hamstring and was forced from the field in which they lost to the Falcons to go 3-5 on the season. Owner and GM Jerry Jones spoke after the game apparently concerned about Prescott’s injury, but at the same time looking to be buyers at the trade deadline. Okay?
So, Anthony Richardson might not have been the problem? Is Joe Flacco just old and still Joe Flacco? Well, however you look at it, the Colts had no offense after switching from Richardson to Flacco as the starter. Yes, they played a good defense in Minnesota and Richardson might not have done any better, but the thought that Flacco might lead them to the playoffs was fools gold. Time to get Richardson back in there.
The Raiders have yet to fire their head coach, but they did fire their OC Luke Getsy. Oh, and they’re now on their third quarterback, Desmond Ridder. We’ll see Gardner Minshew again of course. The Raiders are awful and it appears they will continue to be awful for the foreseeable future. Jacobi Meyers to Pittsburgh anyone?
Jaxon Smith-Njigba gets called up to the big leagues
Smith-Njigba led all pass catchers with 243 air yards in Week 9 against the Rams. That is astounding when you consider he ranks 75th in averaged depth of target for pass catchers with 25 or more targets.
Last season we saw JSN see short targets and it showed in his ADOT, air yards, and yards per catch and this season nothing had really changed, that is, until Week 9. He ended up catching 7-of-13 targets for 180 yards and two touchdowns as his route tree expanded.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
First 25 games: 42 air yards per game (7.1 average depth of target)
Week 9: 243 air yards (20.3 aDOT)
— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) November 4, 2024
Of course, he did all this without D.K. Metcalf, who was out with an injury. The question moving forward is, will JSN start seeing deeper routes even when Metcalf returns? These results must factor into the decision, but we can’t expect him to become the No. 1 receiver with a diverse route tree once Metcalf returns. This is good news to be sure, but we will need to temper expectations with Metcalf likely back this week.
Chase Brown goes bell-cow sans Moss
The Bengals starting running back Chase Brown had been ceding work to Zack Moss on passing downs. That changed when Moss missed their Week 9 matchup with the Raiders. The only question heading into this game was if Brown would still lose passing down work, and unfortunately he did.
But, since the Bengals led throughout and didn’t have to use hurry-up at all, Brown ended up getting every single running back touch. That led to a huge day, as he had 27 carries for 120 yards, and 5 receptions for 37 receiving yards and 1 receiving touchdown.
There’s little doubt that Brown is the lead back, as he was before Moss missed, but we can’t expect 32 touches for any back, let alone one that isn’t the every down back. That’s not to say he isn’t a must start each week, just that this spike week isn’t going to be the norm.
Could there BE anymore WR injuries?!
Yes, yes there could and they continue unabated. The newest additions to the painful in-game injury list are Chris Olave, Drake London and A.J. Brown, who were all forced from their respective games.
It appears London and Brown haven’t suffered significant injuries that will keep them out longterm, but an injury that keeps a player from returning is never good. Olave on the other hand has suffered yet another brain injury, his fourth in the NFL.
We saw the Dolphins put Tua Tagovailoa on I.R. with his latest concussion, so there is a chance the Saints do the same, especially after just firing their head coach and falling to 2-7 and last place in the NFC South.
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Wherefore art thou Jaylen Waddle?
In the four games Tua Tagovailoa has started this season, Jaylen Waddle has 17 targets. That’s not close to the number you’d want to see for the No. 2 receiver on a high-octane offense.
Week 9 was an odd one for Waddle to be sure, as he caught a touchdown, but had a total of two receptions for negative four yards! Even a touchdown reception isn’t going to save that fantasy day!
On the season Waddle is WR64 in PPR leagues and the main reason is that his workload has been completely taken over by De’Von Achane. With Tua behind center, the Dolphins target leader is Tyreek Hill with 32, but Achane is on his heels with 30! It’s just basic math at this point.
Until they change course, Hill and Achane are the only safe plays on the team for fantasy. Things change of course, and we will likely see some spike games for Waddle’s usage moving forward, but as it is, there isn’t a ton of room for him to make a big fantasy impact. But, if you have Achane, you’re sitting pretty right now.
Are the Chargers a passing team now?
In the Chargers first four games of the season, QB Justin Herbert played well, but averaged just 144 yards passing on 22.8 attempts per game. In his last four games he’s averaged 286 yards passing on 33 attempts per game. He’s also thrown for two touchdowns in his last two games.
In this Week 9 game against the Browns, the Chargers had a solid lead throughout, but the offense still went through Herbert, as he dropped back to pass 34 times versus them running the ball just 19 times.
Maybe that has something to do with J.K. Dobbins being inefficient, but I think it has more to do with Herbert just being too damn good to not use as their primary offensive weapon.
Since their Week 5 bye, the Chargers are second in the NFL passing plays of 20 or more yards (19).
Over their first four games of the season, the Chargers had 6 of those plays, ahead of only the Patriots.
Since their Week 5 bye, the Chargers are second in the NFL passing plays of 20 or more yards (19).
Over their first four games of the season, the Chargers had 6 of those plays, ahead of only the Patriots.
— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) November 4, 2024
You need these kinds of explosive plays to compete in the NFL and if your quarterback can get them done on a consistent basis, you let him. And with Quinten Johnston and Ladd McConkey playing well,
Mike Gesicki continues his strong play without Tee Higgins
Going into this week, we knew that Gesicki’s usage went way up with Tee Higgins off the field, and boy did that come to fruition against the Raiders.
The Bengals tight end caught 5-of-6 targets for 100 yards and two touchdowns as the Bengals stomped the Raiders. But, we also know that Higgins will be back at some point and Gesicki could quickly go back to his two targets per game.
The unfortunate, but positive news for Gesicki, is that Erick All suffered a season-ending injury against the Raiders. That injury boosted Gesicki’s snap count even higher than usual, putting him on the field in 11 personnel along with 12 personnel, per Nathan Jahnke.
It might not be enough to offset Higgins and his allowed targets, but it could help give him more chances moving forward.
Tyrone Tracy is locked into the lead running back role
Tracy wasn’t able to practice much this week as he recovered from a brain injury, but that didn’t hurt his usage in Week 9.
He led the running backs in rushing attempts and routes run, while playing his second highest snap percentage of the season. The highest percentage came with Singletary out. At this point we can rely on Tracy seeing over 70% of the snaps and getting work as the lead back and receiving back.
And when you check out their schedule, things continue to look up. They’ll face Panthers, BYE, Buccaneers, Cowboys, Saints, Ravens, Falcons, and Colts to finish off the fantasy season. Even with hot garbage at quarterback, Tracy could help you win you fantasy leagues this season.
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