Week 3 of the NFL season is in the books, and it is time to assess the damage and look forward to fantasy football glory! Today, we will look at some of the more interesting and hopefully useful NFL usage rate statistics to come out of Week 3.
Is Malik Nabers this year’s Puka Nacua?
After a somewhat slow start to his rookie campaign, New York Giants receiver Malik Nabers has absolutely exploded in an offense that didn’t look like it could explode anyone.
But, in his last two games he’s caught 18-of-30 targets (6 RZ) for 205 yards and three touchdowns. The question coming into the season was if Nabers and Daniel Jones could get a connection going without much talent in the receivers room surrounding the rookie to take away coverage. That question has been answered and now the question is if they can keep it up as teams work to slow down that connection.
These two catches by Malik Nabers are sensational. pic.twitter.com/nQLyXpgEym
— Nick Falato (@nickfalato) September 23, 2024
But, the good news is that even if they do struggle at times, the volume is great, as Nabers has now seen 7, 18, and 12 targets in his first three games for the second-best target share in the league at 35.2%.
At this point last year, Puka Nacua had an amazing 25 receptions on 42 targets (3 RZ) for 338 yards and no touchdowns. Nacua’s volume started off hot, but the touchdowns weren’t there compared to Nabers so far. I see no reason not to ride Nabers in fantasy. He’s very much set up to compete for a Top 5 fantasy finish this year and to chase Nacua’s rookie records.
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Injuries to A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith help Dallas Goedert go nuclear
In a year where tight ends have been especially underutilized for fantasy, it’s always good to get a strong game out of one of the top tight ends in the league. Dallas Goedert hadn’t put up good numbers so far, but since no other tight ends have done much, starting Goedert still made plenty of sense.
DALLAS GOEDERT HAVE A GAME 🔥
10 RECEPTIONS 170 YARDS
(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/Renb1h8so5
— B/R Gridiron (@brgridiron) September 22, 2024
Coming into this game, Goedert had caught all eight of his targets for a not so nice 69 yards. Somehow that made him TE12 in PPR leagues, but after Week 3 he’s moved up to TE1! With A.J. Brown out and DeVonta Smith suffering a brain injury with a quarter to play, Goedert ended up catching 10-of-11 targets for 170 yards against the Saints.
But, like all tight ends this year, nobody can be counted on to keep up huge usage. The leading tight ends by targets are Brock Bowers and Trey McBride with 21 each, while Goedert is third with 19. Keep playing the usual suspects at the position for now, well, maybe not Mark Andrews.
Mark Andrews played on just 33% of the snaps in Week 3
The Ravens got out to a big 21-3 lead over the Cowboys at halftime, which quickly pushed the game script to Derrick Henry pounding the rock. In the end, Lamar Jackson only threw the ball 15 times.
Per PFF, Andrews ran just six routes on his 21 snaps, while Isaiah Likely ran 11 routes on his 39 snaps. John Harbaugh and company have multiple offensive sets, and use personnel differently in each. So far, Andrews has been on the short end of the stick and there’s no reason to feel overly optimistic that he’ll quickly return to a big workload.
At this point you can’t really trust either tight end in fantasy, but Likely is the guy with the edge at the moment.
Andy Dalton uses old man strength to dominate Raiders
Bryce Young and fan(s) had to hope that Andy Dalton would struggle at least a little in his first start of the season, but the exact opposite was true.
There is ONE player in the NFL this season with 300 Pass Yards and 3 Pass TD in a single game
Andy Dalton pic.twitter.com/Gs9qdViqyD
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) September 22, 2024
Dalton wasn’t just better than Young, but he looked like a Top 5 quarterback in the league as he dismantled the Raiders to the tune of 26-of-38 completions for 319 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions. In fantasy points per game, he now leads all quarterbacks.
Will he keep it up? The odds are very much against him, but this has been a weird season and Dave Canales has shown that he can put together a strong offense behind average quarterbacks.
But, even if Dalton doesn’t consistently put up ceiling games for fantasy, he is a huge boon for Diontae Johnson, Chubba Hubbard, and Jonathon Brooks whenever he gets off I.R.
J.K. Dobbins has his worst fantasy day, but best usage
The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has been on point this season and they stepped their run defense up against the Chargers in Week 3. Chargers running back J.K. Dobbins reeled off 266 yards rushing and two touchdowns on just 27 carries through the first two weeks, but the Steelers tightened up, limiting him to 44 yards on 15 carries.
That can be expected against a good defense on the road, but the good news is that Dobbins wasn’t splitting time with Gus Edwards nearly as evenly as he had been.
He ended up playing 30 snaps to Edwards’ 16, while getting 15 carries and three targets to Edwards’ 3 carries. This is the kind of role we want to see, making Dobbins a safer play each week.
Bucky Irving leads Buccaneers in rushing attempts in Week 3
The Buccaneers were embarrassed in Denver this week, but it was yet another positive game for rookie running back Bucky Irving, who ran the ball nine times for 70 yards, while Rachaad White ran the ball six times for 17 yards.
Most yards per carry among 34 RBs with 25+ carries this season:
2. Bucky Irving (6.2)
…
33. Rachaad White (2.1)— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) September 23, 2024
This comes after a Week 1 game where Irving ran nine times for 62 yards. But the more interesting fact is that Irving has slowly taken rushing attempts from White. In Week 1 he had 37.5% of the rushing attempts, Week 2, 41% and Week 3, over 56%.
White is still winning the receiving work, but this situation is not good for him at the moment.
Carson Steele leads Chiefs backfield in Week 3
Steele led the Kansas City backfield with 64% of the snaps, 17 carries and two targets as he put together 74 total yards. Samaje Perine, his obvious backup on Sunday, played on 36% of the snaps and had six carries and four targets, and totaled 40 yards.
Neither were worth starting in fantasy, but there’s no doubt that Steele’s workload was enough to be useful in fantasy in the future.
The question is, will these splits stay the same moving forward? That likely depends on how Kareem Hunt looks on the practice squad and whether or not Clyde Edwards-Helaire returns from I.R. But for now, Steele is worth rostering and flexing out when needed.
Cole Kmet is TE3 in PPR leagues through three weeks
After losing in the snap race to Gerald Everett in Week 1, things were looking dire for Kmet. And then, in Week 2, the snaps went up, but a lackluster Bears offense continued to bring him down. Coming into Week 3, Kmet had just five receptions on six targets for 31 yards and no touchdowns. That’s ugly, even for a tight end. But then the Colts came to town and made everything better, well, for Kmet fantasy managers at least!
Kmet ended up catching 10-of-11 targets for 97 yards and a touchdown to move himself all the way up to TE3 for the season.
The Bears trailed the whole game and rookie QB Caleb Williams was chucking the ball non-stop. He chucked the ball into the air 52 times on the day, so the big target numbers aren’t sustainable for Kmet, especially if they get Keenan Allen back sooner than later. The good news is that he’s proven himself a strong target for Williams.
Sam Darnold leads all quarterbacks in passing touchdowns
Darnold is also the only quarterback with two or more touchdown passes in every game this season. But Week 3 was his best fantasy day so far, as he threw for four touchdowns and no interceptions. And he did it against the Houston Texans, while Brian Flores and company had C.J. Stroud looking for an escape hatch.
Sam Darnold with 4 passing TDs in Week 3. Is he an early MVP candidate?
(by @FedEx) pic.twitter.com/bTbNF22yNf
— NFL (@NFL) September 22, 2024
It’s still early in the season, but Darnold does know where to get his bread buttered and Justin Jefferson is a bread butterer extraordinaire. The fear that Darnold would hold back Jefferson was very much unfounded, as Jefferson has caught a touchdown in every game this season and is fourth in receiving yards.
Darnold has put these numbers up without Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson. He’s even helped Jalen Nailor, who has also caught a touchdown in each game this season.
At this point, the Vikings can have multiple fantasy players with Darnold at the helm, so be sure to keep tabs on Nailor, Addison, and Hockenson as we move forward.
So, who is the Denver Broncos running back?
So far, the Broncos best running back has been quarterback Bo Nix, who has 18 carries for 107 yards and two touchdowns. Javonte Williams has rushed 24 times for 54 yards and no touchdowns. Jaleel McLaughlin has 18 carries for 40 yards and a touchdown. Tyler Badie has 10 carries for 86 yards.
Nix has shown plenty as a runner, which is great for his fantasy value, but he still has zero passing touchdowns to four interceptions through three games. He’s going to have to run a whole lot if he keeps that up.
As far as actual running backs go, this is a situation to avoid.
We saw Tyler Badie have some strong runs in Week 3 and led the team in rushing attempts and yards, but he got most of those in the fourth quarter with the team up 23-7. Maybe those runs give him a few more opportunities early, but that would likely just muddle things even more.
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